ANALYSIS

Surprise, Intelligence Failures, and
Indications & Warning Intelligence

Defense Intelligence Journal

 

Defense Intelligence Journal. "Strategic Warning." 7, no. 2 (Fall 1998): Entire issue.

1. Robert D. Vickers, "The State of Warning Today," pp. 9-15.

The National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Warning and Chairman of the Intelligence Community's Warning Committee notes the "decimation" of warning staffs in an era of tight budgets. He argues, however, that "Warning is not broken and the process doesn't need major restructuring."

2. Mary O. McCarthy, "The Mission to Warn: Disaster Looms," pp. 17-31.

A National Security Council staffer and former NIO for Warning, Dr. McCarthy agrees with the Jeremiah and Rumsfeld studies that there is a "dangerous scarcity of specific skills, particularly technical and linguistic," among U.S. analysts. She believes that major changes are needed.

3. Charles E. Allen, "Warning and Iraq's Invasion of Kuwait: A Retrospective Look," pp. 33-44.

The author is Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Collection and was NIO for Warning at the time of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. He offers specific examples of the clear warnings issued from his staff at the time. These warnings were not heeded by senior intelligence officials or policymakers.

4. Leonard S. Spector, "Strategic Warning and New Nuclear States," pp. 45-63. [Reprinted from: Defense Intelligence Journal 3, no. 1 (Spring 1994): 33-52.]

"The threat of unexpected nuclear proliferation has become a growing danger.... [M]otivations, as well as capabilities, are an essential part of the strategic warning database.... [T]he reliability of the Ten Year Rule has become problematic.... [S]ome regular type patterns of uncertainty are beginning to manifest themselves."

5. Jan Goldman, "Warning and the Policy Process: Problem Definition and Chaos Theory," pp. 65-80.

The author suggests that new theoretical models are needed to better understand the dynamics of the public policy process.

6. Lou Anne DeMattei, "Developing a Strategic Warning Capability for Information Defense," pp. 81-121.

"By coupling existing threat warning capabilities with ones tailored to the cyber threat in order to address key attack precursors, and by implementing information defense improvements, effective strategic warning is possible."

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