ANALYSIS

Theory and Methods

A - J

Beebe, Sarah Miller, and Randolph L. Pherson. Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2011.

Wheaton, AIJ 30.1 (2012), finds that the cases "focus on only about 20 techniques shown working with real-world facts." The "majority of the cases are taken from the national security realm." For Manosevitz, Studies 56.4 (Dec. 2012), this "straightforward" book's use of its 12 case studies takes it "beyond similar works focused on structured analytic techniques." Wirtz, IJI&C 27.2 (Summer 2014), says the book provides students "some practical insight into what it's like to work as a criminal investigator or intelligence analyst."

Cesar, Edison M., Patrick D. Allen, and Rick Eden. Finding a New Approach for Measuring the Operational Value of Intelligence for Military Operations: An Annotated Briefing. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1992.

Clark, Robert M. Research: Design and Methods. Washington, DC: JMIC, 2000.

Clauser, Jerome K. Intelligence Research and Analysis: An Introduction. Lanham, MD: Scarecrow Press, 2008.

Peake, Studies 54.4 (Dec. 2010), and Intelligencer 18.2 (Winter-Spring 2011), notes that this "is an introductory text and covers basic techniques." However, it gives "a real world example of how the techniques and methods described are applied.... One might wish it were more detailed, but at least it is a start." For Wheaton, AIJ 30.1 (2012), the author "distinguishes himself by looking beyond tradecraft recipes toward more formal approaches such as game theory and Bayesian analysis."

Clauser, Jerome K., and Sandra M. Weir. Intelligence Research Methodology: An Introduction to Techniques and Procedures for Conducting Research in Defense Intelligence. State College, PA: H.R.B. Singer, 1975. Washington, DC: U.S. Defense Intelligence School, 1976.

Watson, et al, Encyclopedia, p. xiii, says that this work "still stands as the definitive work in its discussion of the components of strategic intelligence."

Cline, Ray S. "Intelligence: The Problem of Accurate Assessment." In Foreign Policy and U.S. National Security, ed. William W. Whitson. New York: Praeger, 1976. [Petersen]

Davis, Jack. "Combating Mind-Set." Studies in Intelligence 36, no. 5 (1992): 33-38.

"Analytic procedures and practices, herein called tradecraft [emphasis in original], that do not ensure against or otherwise combat mind-set put the resultant assessments at high risk of either being wrong or being unread."

Ermarth, Fritz. "The Role of Analysis." Periscope 13, no. 4 (1988): 7-11.

Former Chairman, National Intelligence Council (NIC).

Feder, Stanley A. "Factions and Policon: New Ways to Analyze Politics." Studies in Intelligence 31, no. 1 (Spring 1987): 41-57. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield, 274-292. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995.

The subjects of this article are defined thusly: "Policon is a method for political forecasting and analysis developed by Policon Corp. and used by the CIA under contract from 1982 to 1986. Factions was developed internally by the Directorate of Science and Technology, Office of Research and Development, and is very similar to Policon." (fn. 1)

Fischhoff, Baruch, and Cherie Chauvin, eds. Intelligence Analysis: Behavorial and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: National Research Council, National Academies Press, 2012.

Manosevitz, Studies 56.4 (Dec. 2012), finds that this work "provides a handy reference to the range of social science work that could be useful for improving analysis.... [I]t represents the state of academic debate on the subject."

Fisk, Charles E. "The Sino-Soviet Border Dispute: A Comparison of the Conventional and Bayesian Methods for Intelligence Warning." Studies in Intelligence 16, no. 2 (Spring 1972): 53-62. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield, 264-273. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995.

"Although it cannot be said categorically that the Bayesian method excels as a forecasting device, the Sino-Soviet experiment [detailed in the article] indicates that it might provide a means for such an accounting." See companion article: Zlotnick, "Bayes' Theorum for Intelligence Analysis."

Folker, Robert D., Jr. [MSgt/USAF] Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods. Occasional Paper No. 7. Washington, DC: Joint Military Intelligence College, January 2000. [http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/folker.pdf]

"The author conducted a controlled experiment among a small sample of non-specialized analysts at four Unified Command joint intelligence centers to test the effect of applying a structured method to the qualitative analysis of an intelligence problem.... In brief, the author found that analysts who apply a structured method -- hypothesis testing, in this case -- to an intelligence problem, outperform those who rely on 'analysis-as-art,' or the intuitive approach."

Garst, Ronald D. A Handbook of Intelligence Analysis. 2d ed. Washington, DC: Defense Intelligence College, 1989.

Heuer, Richards J., Jr.

Hulnick, Arthur S. "Managing Analysis Strategies for Playing the End Game." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 2, no. 3 (Fall 1988): 321-343.

Hummel, William C., and Keith Huntress. The Analysis of Propaganda. New York: Dryden, 1956.

Wilcox: "Good account of theory & practice of propaganda analysis."

Johnston, Rob. "Developing a Taxonomy of Intelligence Analysis Variables: Foundations for Meta-Analysis." Studies in Intelligence 47, no. 3 (2003): 61-71.

From "Editor’s Note":  "A carefully prepared taxonomy can become a structure for heightening awareness of analytic biases, sorting available data, identifying information gaps, and stimulating new approaches to the understanding of unfolding events, ultimately increasing the sophistication of analytic judgments.  Th[is] article is intended to stimulate debate leading to refinements of the proposed variables and the application of such a framework to analytic thinking among intelligence professionals."

Johnston, Rob. "Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Substantive Experts: Reducing Analytic Error." Studies in Intelligence 47, no. 1 (2003): 57-65.

"Domain experts are needed for describing, explaining, and problem solving; yet, they are not especially good at forecasting because the patterns they recognize are limited to their specific fields of study. They inevitably look at the world through the lens of their own domain's heuristics. What is needed ... is a combined approach that includes formal thematic teams with structured organizational principles; technological systems designed with significant input from domain experts; and a cadre of analytic methodologists."

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