ANALYSIS

Theory and Methods

A - I

Cesar, Edison M., Patrick D. Allen, and Rick Eden. Finding a New Approach for Measuring the Operational Value of Intelligence for Military Operations: An Annotated Briefing. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1992.

Clark, Robert M. Research: Design and Methods. Washington, DC: JMIC, 2000.

Clauser, Jerome K., and Sandra M. Weir. Intelligence Research Methodology: An Introduction to Techniques and Procedures for Conducting Research in Defense Intelligence. State College, PA: H.R.B. Singer, 1975. Washington, DC: U.S. Defense Intelligence School, 1976.

Watson, et al, Encyclopedia, p. xiii, says that this work "still stands as the definitive work in its discussion of the components of strategic intelligence."

Cline, Ray S. "Intelligence: The Problem of Accurate Assessment." In Foreign Policy and U.S. National Security, ed. William W. Whitson. New York: Praeger, 1976. [Petersen]

Davis, Jack. "Combating Mind-Set." Studies in Intelligence 36, no. 5 (1992): 33-38.

"Analytic procedures and practices, herein called tradecraft [emphasis in original], that do not ensure against or otherwise combat mind-set put the resultant assessments at high risk of either being wrong or being unread."

Ermarth, Fritz. "The Role of Analysis." Periscope 13, no. 4 (1988): 7-11.

Former Chairman, National Intelligence Council (NIC).

Feder, Stanley A. "Factions and Policon: New Ways to Analyze Politics." Studies in Intelligence 31, no. 1 (Spring 1987): 41-57. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield, 274-292. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995.

The subjects of this article are defined thusly: "Policon is a method for political forecasting and analysis developed by Policon Corp. and used by the CIA under contract from 1982 to 1986. Factions was developed internally by the Directorate of Science and Technology, Office of Research and Development, and is very similar to Policon." (fn. 1)

Fisk, Charles E. "The Sino-Soviet Border Dispute: A Comparison of the Conventional and Bayesian Methods for Intelligence Warning." Studies in Intelligence 16, no. 2 (Spring 1972): 53-62. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield, 264-273. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995.

"Although it cannot be said categorically that the Bayesian method excels as a forecasting device, the Sino-Soviet experiment [detailed in the article] indicates that it might provide a means for such an accounting." See companion article: Zlotnick, "Bayes' Theorum for Intelligence Analysis."

Folker, Robert D., Jr. [MSgt/USAF] Intelligence Analysis in Theater Joint Intelligence Centers: An Experiment in Applying Structured Methods. Occasional Paper No. 7. Washington, DC: Joint Military Intelligence College, January 2000. [http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/folker.pdf]

"The author conducted a controlled experiment among a small sample of non-specialized analysts at four Unified Command joint intelligence centers to test the effect of applying a structured method to the qualitative analysis of an intelligence problem.... In brief, the author found that analysts who apply a structured method -- hypothesis testing, in this case -- to an intelligence problem, outperform those who rely on 'analysis-as-art,' or the intuitive approach."

Garst, Ronald D. A Handbook of Intelligence Analysis. 2d ed. Washington, DC: Defense Intelligence College, 1989.

Heuer, Richards J., Jr.

Hulnick, Arthur S. "Managing Analysis Strategies for Playing the End Game." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 2, no. 3 (Fall 1988): 321-343.

Hummel, William C., and Keith Huntress. The Analysis of Propaganda. New York: Dryden, 1956.

Wilcox: "Good account of theory & practice of propaganda analysis."

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