ANALYSIS

Historical

Ernst, Maurice C. "Economic Intelligence in CIA." Studies in Intelligence 28, no. 4 (Winter 1984): 1-22. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield, 305-329. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995.

This is an excellent -- it is tempting to say "classic" -- brief history of the development of economic intelligence in the CIA. It is interesting, although a minor part of the article, that writing in 1984 Ernst says the question of whether the CIA should provide assistance to private U.S. firms "has been a hot issue for more than a decade."

Ignatius, David. "Avoiding Another 'Slam-Dunk.'" Washington Post, 24 May 2006, A23. [http://www.washingtonpost.com]

DNI John Negroponte has picked INR's chief, Thomas Fingar, to be his deputy for analysis. "Fingar's first job was to figure out who worked for him. He ... found more than 15,000 analysts at the 16 intelligence agencies under the DNI umbrella.... Though some people (including me) think that Negroponte should consolidate all-source analysis under his DNI structure, he and Fingar have resisted that approach. Instead, Fingar wants to create 'virtual teams' of analysts drawn from across the intelligence community.... The CIA's Directorate of Intelligence will still have a crucial role, but it is no longer the central and dominant player. At the center of the new structure is the National Intelligence Council, chaired by Fingar, which reports to Negroponte."

Lowenthal, Mark M. "Searching for National Intelligence: U.S. Intelligence and Policy Before the Second World War." Intelligence and National Security 6, no. 4 (Oct. 1991): 736-749.

Lowenthal describes this article as assessing COI and OSS analytical efforts, "arguing that there was little historic continuity between this fairly unimportant output and the analytical role eventually assumed by the CIA."

May, Ernest R., ed. Knowing One's Enemies: Intelligence Assessment Before the Two World Wars. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984.

Clark comment: My introduction to this work by my then-colleague Hayden Peake, who first recommended that I read it and then loaned me his copy to do so, changed my view of intelligence from something that I was doing to a potential field of academic study. Decades after that discovery, I am still studying the field with no end in sight and with no hope of ever managing to read everything.

Seabury, IJI&C 1.1, comments that each contribution is "a 'net assessment' of intelligence service performances by major powers before the outbreak of the two world wars." The essays have "dispassionate objectivity" and are of "uniformly high caliber." This is a "seminal and indispensable" work.

That strongly positive assessment is shared by Herbig, I&NS 1.3, who writes: "The essays are generally of such high quality, and the editor has framed the tasks of his contributors so precisely, that the book is that rare beast, a multi-authored work that is also coherent, enlightening and readable.... The essays ... break new ground by laying out the mechanisms for intelligence gathering available to the various governments, their degree of success and luck, and the quality of the judgements their leaders produced from intelligence."

Smith, Michael Douglas. "CIA Publications: Serving the President with Daily Intelligence." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 12, no. 2 (Summer 1999): 201-206.

Smith traces the history of CIA daily analytic support to the President from the CIG's Daily Summary, which began 15 February 1946, to today's President's Daily Brief.

Steury, Donald P., ed. Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates: Collected Essays. Washington, DC: History Staff, Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1994.

Sherman Kent chaired the Board of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967. His influence in that time on the way the CIA and the intelligence community prepared the centerpiece National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) was substantial. This book brings together some of his writings on intelligence topics. Of particular significance is his article "The Law and Custom of the National Intelligence Estimate."

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. Baptism By Fire: CIA Analysis of the Korean War Overview, at: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/historical-collection-publications/korean-war-baptism-by-fire/index.html.

"This collection includes more than 1,300 documents consisting of national estimates, intelligence memo, daily updates, and summaries of foreign media concerning developments on the Korean Peninsula during 1947-1954.... The release of these documents is in conjunction with the conference, 'New Documents and New Histories: Twenty-First Century Perspectives on the Korean War,' co-hosted by the Harry S. Truman Presidential Library and the CIA in Independence, Missouri."

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