ANALYSIS

Generally

To 1989

I - Z

Johnson, William R.

1. "Clandestinity and Current Intelligence." Studies in Intelligence 20, no. 3 (Fall 1976): 15-69. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield, 118-184. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995.

Clark comment: The argument that "the production of current intelligence and the conduct of espionage are incompatible" cannot be better made. Whether you agree or disagree with Johnson's thesis, it is necessary to either remake or refute the points he makes. In essence, Johnson looks at "the effect of anti-clandestine or semi-clandestine or non-clandestine collection for production in volume on the ability of the Clandestine Service to conduct espionage for strategic coverage" and finds that effect to be totally negative. This article should be mandatory reading for anyone seriously interested in "reforming" American intelligence.

2. "The Elephants and the Gorillas." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 1, no. 1 (Spring 1986): 42- 56.

Clark comment: This is a succinct rendition of the conclusions reached in Johnson's classic article in Studies in Intelligence, "Clandestinity and Current Intelligence" (see above). He argues that "production of current intelligence and the conduct of espionage ... are not compatible and should not be conducted by the same organization."

Kent, Sherman. "Death of a Hypothesis." Studies in Intelligence 9, no. 2 (Spring 1965): 21-24.

"[T]he destruction of an interesting hypothesis is often as important a part of our trade as its confirmation."

Knapp, Frank A., Jr. "Styles and Stereotypes in Intelligence Studies." Studies in Intelligence 8, no. 2 (Spring 1964): A1-A5.

The author argues against extreme uniformity of style and cliched language in intelligence products.

Lacey, Edward J.

1. "Game Theory in Intelligence Analysis." American Intelligence Journal 6, no. 3 (Oct. 1984): 20-25.

2. "Intel Analysis in Academic Research." American Intelligence Journal 5, no. 1 (Feb. 1983): 12-13.

Martin, Joseph W. "What Basic Intelligence Seeks to Do." Studies in Intelligence 14, no. 2 (Fall 1970): 103-113. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield, 207-217. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1995.

The author's ideas about the importance of basic intelligence remain valid, but computerization has overtaken the discussion of specific means.

McDonald, Walter. "African Numbers Game." Studies in Intelligence 8, no. 4 (Fall 1964): 11-20.

"Many, if not most," of the statistics contained in U.S. government publications about the newly independent tropical African states "are patently absurd." National accounting for population "in most African countries is by almost any standard ludicrous."

Merkle, Janet Hill. "Policy Bias." Studies in Intelligence 7, no. 1 (Winter 1963): 55-69.

The author, a "newcomer" to the world of intelligence, examines Community, CIA, and State publications concerning the situation in Portuguese Angola between 1959 and 1962 for signs of a loss of objectivity.

Nielsen, Nathan. "The National Intelligence Daily." Studies in Intelligence 20, no. 1 (Spring 1976): 39-51.

On 10 January 1974, the CIA replaced the booklet Central Intelligence Bulletin (CIB) with the newspaper format National Intelligence Daily (NID). The new format was DCI Colby's initiative. OCI's road to production was at times challenging.

Pechan, Bruce L. "The Collector's Role in Evaluation." Studies in Intelligence 5, no. 3 (Summer 1961): 37-47. In Inside CIA's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield, 99-107. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press,1995.

Platt, Washington [BGEN/USA]. Strategic Intelligence Production: Basic Principles. New York: Praeger, 1957.

Pforzheimer: "Platt describes working level performance from the perspective of the analyst.... Difficult reading at times, but of value because of the few books on the subject."

Schreckengost, R. C. "Some Limitations in Systems Analysis in Intelligence Activities." Studies in Intelligence 14, no. 2 (Fall 1970): 79-86.

"[T]he multitudinous values generally required to explore fully the optimum allocation of resources among diverse intelligence tasks and responsibilities" are critical to the process but difficult to capture, "assuming that a suitable set of values even exists."

Schweitzer, Nicholas. "Bayesian Analysis for Intelligence: Some Focus on the Middle East." Studies in Intelligence 20, no. 2 (Summer 1976): 31-44. [https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/kent-csi/author-combine.htm]

"The article describes Bayesian analysis, using the Delphi (expert) technique and applying it to calculating the probabilities that a war will break out between Israel and Arab states within the next 30 days."

Solin, Gail. "The Art of China Watching." Studies in Intelligence 19, no. 1 (Spring 1975): 23-33

The focus here is on the state of the art of China watching. It deals with the problems that China analysts face; with the analysts' available tools, techniques, and assets; and with the confidence level the analysts may have in their product.

U.S. Congress. Senate. Select Committee on Intelligence. U.S. Intelligence Analysis and the Oil Issue, 1973-1974. Committee Print. 95th Cong., 1st sess. Washington, DC: GPO, 1977. [Petersen]

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