ANALYSIS

Generally

2000s

A - H

Abbott, Sebastian. "The Outsourcing of U.S. Intelligence Analysis: Will It Make Us More or Less Safe?" Naval Intelligence Professionals Quarterly 23, no. 4 (Sep. 2007): 12-15.

Although the author does not really answer the question raised in his title, he has produced an interesting look at the current tidal wave of outsourcing activities previously reserved mostly for government workers. Abbott suggests that "the intelligence community itself is divided about outsourcing intelligence analysis. There are disputes over everything from cost to quality."

Ackerman, Gary, Molly James, and Casey T. Getz. "The Application of Social Bookmarking to the National Intelligence Domain." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 20, no. 4 (Winter 2007): 678-698.

This article discusses "the development of a software tool [tag|Connect] ... designed to enhance the creation of collective knowledge spaces within the Intelligence Community."

Agrell, Wilhelm. "When Everything Is Intelligence - Nothing Is Intelligence." Occasional Papers 1, no. 4. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, The Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis, Oct. 2002. [https://www.cia.gov/library/kent-center-occasional-papers/vol1no4.htm]

"[T]he rapid development of the concept and profession of intelligence analysis ... is facing serious problems and hazards. One of my concerns is the far too broad application of the concept of intelligence.... [I]ntelligence has become regarded as a key element not only in business but virtually in all fields of public and private affairs.... The problem is ... in the application of intelligence analysis in fields where its specific virtues are not adequate, not actually needed, or even might become counter-productive."

Anderson, Dwayne S. "What Makes a Good Intelligence Analyst?" Intelligencer 13, no. 2 (Winter-Spring 2003): 74-75.

A former analyst looks at the question he asks in the title. Brief and representing informed opinion, this is well worth a read.

Armstrong, Fulton T. "Ways to Make Analysis Relevant but Not Prescriptive." Studies in Intelligence 46, no. 3 (2002): 37-43.

The job of the intelligence analyst "is to remain outside the policy and political process, not to be ignorant of it."

Berkowitz, Bruce D. "Learning to Break the Rules." New York Times, 19 Dec. 2003. [http://www.nytimes.com]

"President Bush made special mention of our intelligence analysts in his address after the capture" of Saddam Hussein. In large part, the mission was successful "because analysts were allowed to ignore many long-held beliefs about how intelligence is 'supposed' to work.... Everyone involved in finding Saddam Hussein should pay close attention to the changes in strategy that allowed the achievement -- such practices should be the routine, not the exception."

Borum, Randy, et al. "The Role of Operational Research in Counterterrorism." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 17, no. 3 (Fall 2004): 420-434.

"Research analyses of past plans, operations, and attacks can assist" in the effort to meet the terrorism threat with a response that is intelligence-driven and uses information effectively, "but only if the studies are planned and conducted with an emphasis on operational relevance."

Clark, Robert M. Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2004. 2d ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2007.

Wirtz, IJI&C 18.4 (Winter 2005-2006), finds the author "has written a wonderfully concise handbook for intelligence analysts." This work is "not for the novice," but "is of great interest to scholars because it describes both the strengths and limitations of the wide variety of analytic techniques used to understand and predict social, military, and political phenomena."

To Peake, Studies 52.1 (Mar. 2008) and Intelligencer 16.1 (Spring 2008), this work "is a fine treatment of contemporary analytic tradecraft that makes clear why the analyst has one of the toughest jobs in the profession." However, commenting on the 3d edition, Peake, Studies 54.4 (Dec. 2010), and Intelligencer 18.2 (Winter-Spring 2011), is "left wondering just how the various approaches discussed are actually applied to a real-world situation."

Collier, Michael W. "A Pragmatic Approach to Developing Intelligence Analysts." Defense Intelligence Journal 14, no. 2 (2005): 17-35.

The author argues that "intelligence analysis is first and foremost a science," but hastens to add that there is a "need for analysts to use creativity, imagination, and innovation in their work." He "suggests that the research problem or question should determine which analytic methods are used."

de Valk, Giliam. Dutch Intelligence: Towards a Qualitative Framework for Analysis, with Case Studies on the Shipping Research Bureau and the National Security Service (BVD). Rotterdam: BJu Legal Publishers, 2006.

Peake, Studies 51.1 (Mar. 2007), finds that the author's "study is impressively documented," but the conclusions point to "outcomes [that] are standard measures in most services." In addition, de Valk "has yet to validate his approach using an extensive database."

Dumaine, Carol, and L. Sergio Germani, eds. New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC, and Rome, Italy: Global Futures Partnership of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis, the Link Campus University of Malta, and the Gino Germani Center for Comparative Studies of Modernization and Development, 2005.

Peake, Studies 50.1 (Mar. 2006), notes that this work consists of "15 interesting presentations" from "an April 2004 conference in Rome.... [T]he idea that changes are necessary in order to cope with the increasing volume of data and complexity of analysis was taken seriously by the participating academic and intelligence professionals, who came from 12 countries and represented 35 organizations. The Introduction by conference co-directors ... outlines the major themes of the book and provides a useful series of guideposts for improving intelligence analysis."

Foryst, Carole A. "Missing from U.S. Analysis: The Concept of 'Total U.S.'" International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 22, no. 3 (Fall 2009): 396-420.

The Intelligence Community "does not appear to internalize the U.S. as a unified entity -- as the international phenomenon it is."

George, Roger Z. "Fixing the Problem of Analytical Mind-Sets: Alternative Analysis." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 17, no.3 (Fall 2004): 385-404.

"Knowing when a mind-set is becoming obsolete and in need of revision can test the mettle of the best expert.... Alternative Analysis (AA) seeks to impose an explicit self-review by using specific techniques to reveal unconscious analytical assumptions or challenge weak evidence or logic, and consider alternative hypotheses or outcomes, even in the absence of convincing evidence."

Hanig, Rachel K., and Mark E. Henshaw. "Needed: A National Security Simulation Center." Studies in Intelligence 52, no. 2 (Jun. 2008): 11-18.

"The authors argue that creation of a National Security Simulations Center would strengthen the accuracy and insight of intelligence analysis, improve IC collaboration, and create a testing ground for new analytic tools and methods."

Harris, Shane. "Intelligence Veteran Aims to Motivate Young Analysts." GovernmentExecutive.com, 24 Sep. 2007. [http://www.govexec.com]

Mike Wertheimer, assistant deputy director of national intelligence for analytic transformation and technology, has the task of transforming "the massive intelligence bureaucracy into a collaborative network." A key element "is a suite of new information-sharing and collaborative technologies that look and feel a lot like ... the networking and search tools that younger analysts grew up using." Wertheimer "and his bosses are betting that collaboration is the way to fix what's broken with intelligence."

Hendrickson, Noel. "Critical Thinking in Intelligence Analysis." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 21, no. 4 (Winter 2008-2009): 679-693.

The author offers what he describes as "an ambitious new definition of critical thinking designed specifically to address the unique challenges of intelligence analysis."

Herbert, Matthew. "The Intelligence Analyst as Epistemologist." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 19, no. 4 (Winter 2006-2007): 666-684.

"Intelligence analysis is about coping with epistemic complexity. Its core imperative is to develop a clear estimate of the sum of knowledge derived from partial, multivariate information, and to balance that estimate against a postulate of what ought, in ideal circumstances, to be known in order to support a rational decision." See Christopher Dreisbach, "The Challenges Facing an IC Epistemologist-in-Residence," International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 24, no. 4 (Winter 2011-2012): 757-792.

Hess, James [CW3/USA], and Curtis R. Friedel. "Applying Critical Thinking to Intelligence Analysis." American Intelligence Journal 26, no. 1 (Summer 2008): 31-44.

This article presents "Facione's (1990) critical thinking skills and how they may be applied to the processes used for intelligence analysis."

Hubbard, Robert L. "Another Response to Terrorism: Reconstituting Intelligence Analysis for 21st Century Requirements." Defense Intelligence Journal 11, no. 1 (Winter 2002): 71-80.

The Intelligence Community needs to "return to requirements-based resourcing and develop realistic force level planning and acquisition based on the requirements that are being laid upon it."

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