ANALYSIS

Generally

2010s

L - O

Lahneman, William J., and Rubén Arcos, eds. The Art of Intelligence: Simulation, Exercises, and Games. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2014.

According to Peake, Studies 59.1 (Mar. 2015), "the 15 chapters in The Art of Intelligence explain three types of simulations the authors have used to improve student analytic skills." However, the book "does not cite studies to support its argument that these types of simulations will produce better intelligence analysts. Nor does it discuss the other important courses of study -- languages, computers, international relations, etc. Still, it does document the sophisticated level of courses currently offered in European and American institutions."

Lowenthal, Mark M. "Transforming Intelligence: From What, to What?" American Intelligence Journal 29, no. 1 (2011): 5-11.

The author sees the 9/11 Commission Report as "one of the most archly political commission reports ever published." He also notes that the IRTPA "went through a greatly abbreviated legislative process." All the talk about "transforming" intelligence "leads to a more important question: How much of what the Intelligence Community does is truly susceptible to transformative change? I would argue that the answer is 'Not much.' ... [T]he most glaring problem is the woeful misunderstanding of what it is that the Intelligence Community does." Lowenthal calls for "[g]etting back to basics in a serious, Community-wide way."

Marchio, James. "If the Weatherman Can...": The Intelligence Community's Struggle to Express Analytic Uncertainty in the 1970s." Studies in Intelligence 58, no. 4 (Dec. 2014): 19-30. [https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-58-no-4/by-the-numbers-201cif-the-weatherman-can-201d-the-intelligence-community2019s-struggle-to-express-analytic-uncertainty-in-the-1970s.html]

"This article first examines the environment that pushed the IC to re-think its treatment of analytic uncertainty. It then explores DIA's uncertainty experiment and its aftermath. The article concludes by discussing lessons offered by the IC’s 1970s experience."

Marrin, Stephen. "Intelligence Studies Centers: Making Scholarship on Intelligence Analysis Useful." Intelligence and National Security 27, no. 3 (Jun. 2012): 398-422.

Marrin makes a case for "the creation of academic centers or institutes with an intelligence or intelligence analysis-oriented focus as a way to supplement knowledge creation in both traditional academic departments and the newer public policy-oriented 'intelligence schools'."

Marrin, Stephen. "Is Intelligence Analysis an Art or a Science." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 25, no. 3 (Fall 2013): 529-545.

"[S]ome utility is evident in using the art versus science debate in the teaching of intelligence analysts precisely because it facilittates learning."

McDermott, Rose. "Experimental Intelligence." Intelligence and National Security 26, no. 1 (Feb. 2011): 82-98.

From Abstract: "This article explores the use and application of experimental methodologies in intelligence analysis.... The paradigm of experimental manipulation serves as a useful template for exploring alternative conceptualizations of of uncertain environments."

Meador, C. Lawrence, and Vinton G. Cerf. "Rethinking the President's Daily Intelligence Brief." Studies in Intelligence 57, no. 4 (Dec. 2013): 1-14 [https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-57-no-4/pdfs/Meador-Cerf-Rethinking%20the%20PDB-Dec2013.pdf]

"[T]he focus of this article is on a future environment in which tablets and other platforms are the principal mechanisms for presenting and visualizing intelligence to senior leaders."

Moore, David T. Sensemaking: A Structure for an Intelligence Revolution. Washington, DC, NDIC Press, 2011. Available at: http://www.ni-u.edu/ni_press/pdf/Sensemaking.pdf.

Wheaton, AIJ 30.1 (2012), notes that the author "argues for not just an improvement but a fundamental change in the way analysis is done." This work is "high theory," and consequently is "tough sledding. Moore pulls no punches as he bobs and weaves his way from topics as difficult and as different as complexity theory and non-state actors."

Nitzu, Ionel, ed. Intelligence Analyst Guide: A Digest for Junior Intelligence Analysts. Bucharest: National Intelligence Academy, Mihai Viteazul Publishing, 2012.

Peake, Studies 57.2, notes that the author, a Romanian intelligence analyst, "has assembled a collection of brief articles on aspects of intelligence analysis written by 20 experienced analysts from the National Intelligence Academy in Bucharest and other elements of the Romanian intelligence community." The work "is interesting for several reasons. It indicates how much Romanian thinking about intelligence has changed since the fall of its communist government. The book also reflects the considerable influence of the West in the methods it treats and in the sources it cites in the footnotes and the bibliography."

Olcott, Anthony C. "The Challenges of Clashing IC Interests." International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 23, no. 4 (Winter 2010-2011): 623-635.

"Just as other traditional purveyors of information ... are belatedly discovering that one-time customers no longer find the type of information they convey or the forms in which they do so to be of value, so does the IC face the challenge of proving its continued worth to those whom it calls 'customers.'"

Return to Analysis/Generally Table of Contents