National Intelligence Council


National Intelligence Council. Eds., John K. Allen, Jr., John Carver, and Tom Elmore. Intro., Lloyd Gardner. Estimative Products on Vietnam, 1948-1975. Washington, DC: NIC 2005-03, Apr. 2005.

The print copy of this important set of documents contains, in whole or in part, 38 of the 174 documents declassified at this time. The accompanying CD contains all of the documents in their entirety. The documents "show how the US Intelligence Community viewed critical developments over a 27-year period, ranging from analysis of the implications of the post-World War II breakup of colonial empires to the Communist takeover of Saigon in 1975." ["Preface," p. i] Gardner's excellent introduction seeks "to provide the context within which the Vietnam analysts worked and how they viewed developments in South Vietnam until the fall of Saigon in 1975." ["Introduction," p. xi]

Hanyok, I&NS 20.4 (Dec. 2005), finds Gardner's introduction "both useful and insightful about the content and makeup of the Estimates." This compendium "is a useful tool for scholars interested in the Indochina conflict and the way the US intelligence community arrives at the intelligence it delivers to the administration."

For Brooks, NIPQ 22.2 (Apr. 2006), Gardner's introduction "does an excellent job of presenting the history of our Vietnam involvement juxtaposed with what the [NIEs], Special NIEs and estimative memoranda were saying." This "is a very cleverly organized and well-presented book.... [It] would have profited from some commentary on the diversity of views within the IC and the impact this had on policy decisions."

[Analysis/Estimative; Vietnam/Analysis & Ref]

National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2010. Washington, DC: NIC, Feb. 1997; rev. ed. Nov. 1997. Available at:

From "Scope Note": "In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences ... to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe.... Participants in the conferences were drawn from academic institutions, journalism, business, the US Government, and other professions.... Global Trends 2010 is the result of the conference deliberations as well as follow-on discussions chaired by Dr. Richard Cooper, then-Chairman of the NIC."


National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernment Experts. Washington, DC: NIC, 2001. []

See Geoffrey D. Dabelko, ed., "The U.S. National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2015: Excerpts, Commentaries, and Response," Environmental Change & Security Project Report 7 (Summer 2001): 59-99. There are 14 brief responses to the NIC's report included here, as well as a response by Ellen Laipson, acting chair of the NIC.

[GenPostCW/00s/Gen; GenPostwar/NatSec/Env]

National Intelligence Council. Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project. Washington, DC: NIC 2004-13, Dec. 2004. []

"Mapping the Global Future is the third unclassified report prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the past seven years [Global Trends 2010 and Global Trends 2015] that takes a long-term view of the future.... [T]he project's primary goal is to provide US policymakers with a view of how the world developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action." Intelligencer 14.2 (Winter-Spring 2005), carries the "Executive Summary: The 2020 Global Landscape" of this report.


National Intelligence Council. "National Intelligence Estimate: The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States." Environmental Change and Security Report 6 (Summer 2000): 33-65.

From Abstract: "These excerpts from a January 2000 [NIE] highlight the rising global health threat of new and reemerging infectious diseases. The [NIC] argues that the infectious disease threat will complicate U.S. and global security over the next twenty years. These diseases will endanger U.S. citizens at home and abroad, threaten U.S. armed forces deployed overseas, and exacerbate social and political instability in key countries and regions in which the United States has significant interests."


National Intelligence Council. Eds., John K. Allen, Jr., John Carver, and Tom Elmore. Intro., Robert L. Suettinger. Tracking the Dragon: National Intelligence Estimates on China During the Era of Mao, 1948-1976. Washington, DC: NIC 2004-05, Oct. 2004.

This hefty volume contains 37 formerly classified NIEs and SNIEs on China. The accompanying CD has an additional 34 such documents. Suettinger's "Introduction" to the collection provides excellent and concise context. The print version is also available on the NIC Public Web site at

[Analysis/China & Estimative; China/Gen]

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